West Ham Safe? Let’s Look At The Numbers

I spent a lovely lunch here in California watching Hull City squander three points with a dismal display against Aston Villa. So where does that leave the Hammers? Are we safe? Well it’s like an episode of that crappy TV show “Numb3rs”, it all comes down to the numbers.

West Ham, Hull and Burnley have all played 35 games with three to play. Hull is 3 points adrift of the Hammers, Burnley a point behind Hull. But, and here’s the big but, the goal difference is in the Hammers favor with a GD of -19 against Hull’s GD of -40 and Burnley’s GD of -38.

Are you with me so far?

So in effect even if the Hammers didn’t show up for the last three games and didn’t get another point, Hull City would still have to take four points from the last three games to survive, while Burnley would need five, all because of the GD.

Let’s look at those games starting with Hull.

The Tigers start their last three games at home to Sunderland on April 24th, away at Wigan and then at home to Liverpool. Do we think Hull is going to take three points from Sunderland, well maybe, but a point at least? Then away to Wigan, maybe another point, maybe three, it’s not a certainty. Lastly at home to Liverpool which could be a moot point because if they haven’t got a point against Sunderland or Wigan, the Liverpool game won’t matter.

So to Burnley.

Firstly home to Liverpool on April 25th. I’m sorry but even Burnley fans can’t think they can get more than a point there. Next they are away to Birmingham, so maybe a win, could be, Birmingham haven’t got much to play for. Lastly, at home to Spurs which is a zero point game based on the Spurs beating Arsenal and Chelsea last week and their desire for fourth place. So sorry Burnley, but it looks like you won’t be in the premier league next year.

Of course, this assumes that the Hammers won’t get a point in their last three games; which are at home to Wigan on April 24th, away at Fulham, and home to Man City. But if the Hammers win against Wigan, then its lights out for Burnley and Hull, bar a miracle. Or perhaps miracles do happen and Wolves go down with Burnley.

After all, it’s all just a game of numbers.

Category: Team News